Scientists believe that the possibility of a very strong California quake in the next few decades is very real. California quake Scientists imagining the next “Big one” and they considered the section of the San Andreas to be the most primed to break. A team of scientists, government first responders and industries are working to create a realistic crisis and disaster scenario that can be used for preparedness. The “Big One,” as earthquake scientists imagine it in a detailed, first-of-its-kind script.
San Andreas Fault – the 800-mile boundary where the Pacific and North American plates grind against each other.
Scientists chose the parameters of the fictional temblor such as its size and length of rupture and ran computer models to simulate ground movement. Engineers calculated the effects of shaking on freeway buildings pipelines and other infrastructure. Risk Analysts used the data to estimate casualties and damages.
The scenario: The San Andreas Fault Suddenly rumbles to life on November 13, 2008 just after morning rush hour. The quake begins north of the US Mexican border near the Salton Sea and the fault ruptures for about 200 miles on a Northwest direction ending near high desert town Palmdale about 40 miles north of downtown Los Angeles.
Scientist chose the scenario because it wold create intense shaking in the Los Angeles Basin and neighboring countries – a region with nearly 22 million people.
The scenario will be released at a House of Subcommittee on the Energy and Mineral Resources meeting in Washinton.
Here are the major elements:
-10 AM The San Andreas Fault: ruptures sending shock waves racing at 2 miles per second.
-30 seconds later: The agricultural Coachella Valley shakes first sections of the Interstate 10 one of the nation’s major east-west corridors break apart.
-1 minute later: Interstate 15 a key north-south route id severed in places, Rail lines break; a train derails. Tremors hit burgeoning Riverside and San Bernardino counties east of Los Angeles.
-1 minute 30 seconds later: Shock waves advance toward the Los Angeles Basin shaking it violently for 55 seconds.